Posted on by Bonnie

COVID-19 Update 1 November 2021              

COVID-19 Update 1 November 2021

NH DHHS has had enormous issues with their COVID data. Today’s info, especially for Salem, is abbreviated.

  • Salem’s current and active case numbers have not been available since Oct 25. 
  • Salem’s new cases per 100K for 14 days was 284 on Oct 26, the last time this information was available.
  • Salem’s Positivity Rate for the “last 7 days” as of October 26 was 2.2%.
  • None of the other numbers for Salem that I normally report are available.

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

  • New cases of COVID-19 in NH this week by math (Total cases last week compared to total cases today): 4334. (2,778 last week) 
  • 1 out of every 10 NH residents has been infected. 
  • Active COVID-19 cases in NH: 3,948 (3,295 last week.) There were 155 active cases on June 28.
  • Recovered in NH this week: 3,948. (3,395 last week.)
  • State Level of Transmission: Substantial in all counties 
  • New patients hospitalized this week because of COVID-19: 93 (really?) from Wed, 10/27 to Monday, 11/1 (From 10/18-10/22: 6. From 10/22-10/26: 3.
  • Current patients hospitalized because of COVID-19: 193 (220 one week ago; 178 two weeks ago)
  • New admissions to ICU this week because of COVID-19: 27 (really?) from Wed, 10/27 to Monday, 11/1. (From 10/18-10/22: 2.)
  • New deaths attributed to COVID-19 reported in NH this week: 24 (really?) from Wed, 10/27 to Monday, 11/1. (From 10/18-10/22: 1.)
  • Total NH individuals fully vaccinated: No recent data is available. No reliable data is available. Per NHPR: “Over the summer, the gap in vaccinations as reported by the state and the CDC grew to a discrepancy of more than 200,000 first doses. The state health department’s data is currently showing 60 percent of the total population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, while the CDC puts that same figure at 75 percent.”

Hello, Salem!

Random thoughts from this week:

I’m sharing numbers based on the numbers reported by NH DHHS. My trust in these numbers have never been lower than they have been for the past two weeks. As you read the excerpts from NH DHHS, right below this message, you’ll understand why I’m concerned.

And then there are these short pieces you can read on NHPR: Scroll down to: “NH reports 2,140 new cases, part of backlog” (Update: Friday, Oct. 30, 3:54 p.m.) and “New Hampshire’s COVID-19 vaccine data hasn’t been accurate for months, officials say” (Updated: 1:53 p.m., Oct. 29).

Am I frustrated? You betcha! Since I’m now reporting weekly, and comparing “this week to last week” and “today compared to a month ago” it will take me at least 4 weeks before I don’t have to manually adjust my formulas. 

Am I surprised? Nope. I’ve been complaining about the way the numbers for multiple days have been combined in the DHHS’s updates since September 7.

The problems have been going on since at least Labor Day, and have been building ever since. It is unlikely they that the Governor’s team has not known that there have been problems for two months, and possibly more. They have been letting us down.

From the Governor’s press conference on Oct 27:

  • The Fall and Winter surge is happening, as predicted.
  • NH has 500-550 new cases per day.
  • 30% of people being hospitalized with COVID-19 – not everyone hospitalized – are fully vaccinated. It was 10 percent in July and August. 
  • Since cases are increasing, he plans to return to weekly press conference.

My next update is scheduled for next Monday. Hopefully by then, the State will have figured things out, and resolved all of the issues. In the meantime, stay safe, and always, be kind. 

~Bonnie 

Last Monday, NH DHHS reported on their website, “The COVID-19 Dashboards are undergoing scheduled maintenance and are currently unavailable. We apologize for this extended time frame. We are working as quickly as possible to complete the maintenance.”

The press release for last Monday now says, “Please note, due to an issue with the surveillance system healthcare providers use to notify DHHS of new cases, data from October 23-24 is incomplete. We are working to address the issue and will release complete COVID- 19 data once it has been resolved.” It MAY have been there when I did the update on Monday … but I didn’t see it until mid-week, when I looked at that update again.

There was no update on Tuesday: No updates on the website, no press release.

On Wednesday, NH DHHS reported on their website, “Due to an issue with the surveillance system healthcare providers use to notify DHHS of new cases of COVID-19, new case data is unavailable. The issue has been resolved and the COVID-19 Dashboards will be updated today. (I didn’t notice what they had on Tuesday).

On Thursday, NH DHHS said in their press release, “The state is averaging between 500 – 550 new cases per day. DHHS continues to work through the backlog of cases from previous days and will issue additional data once it has been analyzed.” Normally they report in this update a number for total cases, recovered, deaths, current cases and current hospitalizations (amongst others). Today, all that was reported was total deaths and current hospitalizations, with the other line items marked with dashes. Also shared were details about 7 new deaths. The dashboards have the same notice as yesterday.

On Friday at 5:30, on the press release page, “Temporarily Unavailable. The website that you’re trying to reach is having technical difficulties and is currently unavailable. We are aware of the issue and are working hard to fix it. Thank you for your patience.”

On Saturday, late morning, the page for the press releases is still having technical difficulties, and the dashboards still have the same message as they had on Wednesday: they “will be updated today.” I did spot a Summary Report dated yesterday, part way down that page, that I don’t think was there yesterday, although I might have missed. The Summary Report states the number of total cases (134,517), number of recovered and percent (129,614 = 96%), number of deaths and percent (1,565 = 1%), and number of current hospitalizations (191). Left blank was number of current cases. Wouldn’t that be Total Cases minus Recovered minus deaths??? That would be 3,338. However, 96%+1%=97%, so the remaining 3% should be active/current. 3% of the total cases is 4,035, an almost 700 difference in active cases from what I come up with for active cases by math, and I come up with 2.48% of all cases are still active, so things still don’t feel right.

Sunday: No change. The page for the press releases is still down and the dashboards still  say they “will be updated today.”

Monday: The press release page is back up, but the last report is dated October 28, and still has extremely limited data. The dashboards no longer have the “will be updated today,” but they are still screwed up. The overview page, and schools, hospital and vaccine dashboards all say they have data as of 10/25. The landing page and the summary page claim to have today’s data. The map dashboard claims to have data as of 10/26, but the cumulative cases and active cases by towns are not loading. It’s still a mess.

• • • • • • DIAGNOSTIC TESTS IN NH • • • • • •

  • Total people who have tested positive: 136,775 (132,441) last week)
  • New positive cases reported this week by math (Comparison of total number of cases last week to now): 4,334 (2,778 last week)

• • • • • ACTIVE CASES • • • • • • 

  • NH has 3,948 active cases. Last week we had 3,295. We were down to 214 cases as recently as June 28.

• • • • • CUMULATIVE CASES • • • • • • (As of last Monday; not likely to have changed)

  • 1 out of every 8 Salem residents has been infected 
  • 1 out of every 10 residents of Rockingham County 
  • 1 out of every 10 residents of NH have been infected 

• • • • • • RECOVERED • • • • • •

  • Total recovered: 131,259
  • Recovered this week: 3,657 (2,039 last week)
  • Percentage of diagnosed cases that have recovered: 96.0% (98.3% in late July.) 

• • • • • COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION • • • • • • 

  • Two weeks ago, every county in NH, as well as Manchester and Nashua, are at Substantial risk for community transmission. It appears that this is unchanged as of 10/26.
  • Cases per 100K NH residents: 497.0 as of 10/26. (NH last week: ???)
  • Positivity Rate for NH: 4.3% as of 10/26 (??? last week)

• • • • • • HOSPITALIZATIONS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • Currently hospitalized: 193 (Last week: 220)
  • Staffed hospital beds available: ???
  • Total hospitalized patients: 1,914 (1,824 as of 10/27; 1,821 as of 10/22)
  • New patients hospitalized this week because of COVID-19: 93 (really?) from Wed, 10/27 to Monday, 11/1 (From 10/18-10/22: 6. From 10/22-10/26: 3.
  • Current patients hospitalized because of COVID-19: 193 (220 one week ago; 178 two weeks ago)
  • Percentage of those who have been infected that have been hospitalized: 1.4% 
  • New admissions to ICU this week because of COVID-19: 27 (really?) from Wed, 10/27 to Monday, 11/1. (From 10/18-10/22: 2.)
  • Staffed adult ICU beds available: ???%
  • Ventilators available: ???% 

• • • • • • DEATHS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • Total fatalities in NH associated with COVID-19: 1,543 as of Friday 
  • New deaths attributed to COVID-19 reported in NH this week: 24 (really?) from Wed, 10/27 to Monday, 11/1. (From 10/18-10/22: 1.)
  • Persons under 60 years of age who have died: 87
  • Persons under 60 who died since Oct 22: 1
  • Persons over 60 years of age who have died: 1,481
  • Persons over 60 who died since Oct 22: 24
  • NH Residents diagnosed with COVID-19 that died: 1.15% 

• • • • • • TOTALS BY AGES • • • • • •

(Showing changes since Friday, 10/22)

  • 0-9: Infections: 9887 (+602); Hospitalizations: 19 (+0); Deaths: 0 (+0)
  • 10-19: Infections: 18335 (+732); Hospitalizations: 15 (+0); Deaths: 0 (+0)
  • 20-29: Infections: 25692 (+637); Hospitalizations: 46 (+2); Deaths: 2 (+0)
  • 30-39: Infections: 20375 (+710); Hospitalizations: 87 (+3); Deaths: 10 (+0)
  • 40-49: Infections: 17723 (+665); Hospitalizations: 146 (+7); Deaths: 23 (+1)
  • 50-59: Infections: 19871 (+652); Hospitalizations: 269 (+11); Deaths: 52 (+0)
  • 60-69: Infections: 13231 (+497); Hospitalizations: 425 (+23); Deaths: 172 (+6)
  • 70-79: Infections: 6583 (+318); Hospitalizations: 464 (+27); Deaths: 376 (+9)
  • 80+: Infections: 4949 (+162); Hospitalizations: 443 (+20); Deaths: 933 (+9)
  • Unknown: Infections: 129 (+10); Hospitalizations: 0 (+0); Deaths: 0 (+0)
  • Total: Infections: 136775 (+4985); Hospitalizations: 1914 (+93); Deaths: 1568 (+25)

New Infections in the Past 4 Weeks vs. All NH Cases 

  • 0-9: 12% vs. 7.2% (+4.8%)
  • 10-19: 16.7% vs. 13.4% (+3.3%)
  • 20-29: 13.4% vs. 18.8% (-5.4%)
  • 30-39: 14.6% vs. 14.9% (-0.3%)
  • 40-49: 12.5% vs. 13% (-0.5%)
  • 50-59: 12.9% vs. 14.5% (-1.6%)
  • 60-69: 9.5% vs. 9.7% (-0.2%)
  • 70-79: 5.2% vs. 4.8% (+0.4%)
  • 80+: 3.1% vs. 3.6% (-0.5%)
  • Unknown: 0.1% vs. 0.1% (0%)

Additional Age Stats

  • ??? children under 18 are included in this week’s new cases. 
  • ???% of new cases announced by DHHS this week are kids under 18 years old. 
  • Under 60: 3,998 new cases; 23 hospitalizations, 1 death since 10/22.
  • 60+: 977 new cases; 70 hospitalizations; 24 deaths since 10/22.

• • • • • • Institutional Outbreaks in NH • • • • • •  

  • NH DHHS reported 16 institutional outbreaks as of Wednesday, Oct. 27. Last week there were 14 outbreaks. Of special notice is the Hillsborough County Department of Corrections, which has had 121 residents infected.
  • Details about these active outbreaks, and all closed outbreaks, can be seen here.

• • • • • • VARIANTS IN NH • • • • • •  

Per WMUR, NH has had:

  • Number of B.1.1.7 variant (Alpha; UK) cases: 1,259 No change) 
  • Number of B.1.351 variant (Beta; South Africa) cases: 2 (No change)
  • Number of P.1 variant (Gamma; Brazil) cases: 203 (No change)
  • Number of B.1.617.2 variant (Delta; India) cases: 1,614 (1,561 last week)

(This has not been updated for a few days.)

These are not simply numbers. We must not forget that these are all someone’s husband or wife, mother or father, sister or brother, son or daughter, friend or neighbor.

The chart above was published in the September issue of the AARP Bulletin. It is based on information from the article, “Vital Statistics: Provisional Life Expectancy Estimates for 2020,” which was published by the CDC.

FINDING INFORMATION:

The State lists information on where to get vaccinated, where to get tested, and what to do if you test positive or were exposed to COVID on their website.

COVID-19 SYMPTOMS – Updated early September 2021

Concerns continue to grow for the Delta variant of COVID-19, which now accounts for 93% of all new COVID-19 infections. Descriptions of symptoms have been updated:

Ranking of Symptoms for Covid-19 Infection in the Unvaccinated

  1. Headache
  2. Sore Throat
  3. Runny Nose
  4. Fever
  5. Persistent cough 

Loss of smell now comes in at number 9, and shortness of breath is way down the list at number 30.

Ranking of Symptoms for Covid-19 Infection in the Partially Vaccinated

  1. Headache
  2. Runny Nose
  3. Sore throat
  4. Sneezing
  5. Persistent Cough

Sneezing, which was never thought to be a symptom in the original Covid strain, is now ranked more common than a cough, for a reported symptom in those with only one dose of the vaccine.

Ranking of Symptoms for Covid-19 Infection in the Fully Vaccinated

  1. Headache
  2. Runny Nose
  3. Sneezing
  4. Sore throat
  5. Loss of smell

A cough ranks 8 on the list for fully vaccinated people, and a fever ranks 12. Shortness of breath is way down the list at number 29.

Breakthrough COVID-19 symptoms:

  • While some vaccinated people are getting COVID, it is still rare, and 99.9% of all recent hospitalizations and deaths associated with COVID-19 are people who are not vaccinated.
  • CDC reports that 79% of those who are found to have breakthrough infections have a cough, headache, sore throat, myalgia and fever. 
  • NBC says approximately 1 in 900 vaccinated people have had breakthrough infections. The vast majority of those had mild or no symptoms. 

A new study shows that unvaccinated people are 17x more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than people who are fully vaccinated.

Useful links

Sources used to create these reports:

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