COVID-19 Update 23 May 2021

COVID-19 Update 23 May 2021

Total: 2,952 confirmed cases in Salem
Salem today: 3 new cases since yesterday
Salem has 7 active cases, which is where we were in early October. In late September, we had less than 5 active cases.
1 out of every 10 Salem residents has been infected
Salem’s new cases per 100K for 14 days: 108
Salem’s Positivity Rate for the past 2 weeks: 4.4%

We have reasons to celebrate, but we still have reasons to be concerned. Please see my message just above the calendar for my interpretation of some conflicting numbers.

On Friday, May 21, 2021, DHHS announced 127 new positive test results for COVID-19. Today’s results include 76 people who tested positive by PCR test and 51 who tested positive by antigen test. There are now 1,047 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire.

Several cases are still under investigation. Additional information from ongoing investigations will be incorporated into future COVID-19 updates.

• • • • • • TODAY’S SUMMARY • • • • • •

Today, DHHS did not publish their daily press release, so some numbers are blank.
Salem added 3 new cases since yesterday, bringing our total to 2,952 Salem residents who have had confirmed case of COVID-19.
Salem’s active cases decreased by 10 since yesterday bringing the total to 7. Salem had 13 active cases one week ago.
Salem now has the same number of active cases as we had on October 1. The day before, we had less than five active cases.
Salem’s new cases per 100K residents is 108. Yesterday, it was 105. One week ago, it was 118.
Salem’s positivity rate for PCR & antigen results in the past week is 4.4%, a “minimal” level of community transmission, although it is above the goal of less than 2%. Yesterday it was 4.4%. One week ago, it was 2.5%. Salem’s positivity rate was 14.3% on Dec. 14. Since this rate has been shared, Sunday was the lowest we’ve been at 2.3%. This is the first day since last Sunday that this rate has decreased.
There are 53 NH communities with a positivity rate of more than 0. (55 a week ago). There are 49 communities with a positivity rate higher than 2%. (55 a week ago). 27 communities have more than 5% (29 a week ago). 10 communities have a positivity rate of more than 10%. (6 a week ago.) 27 communities have a higher positivity rate than Salem’s. (52 a week ago; it was as high as 10 on March 28.)
Today the new cases “by math” (yesterday vs. today’s cumulative total of positive cases as reported by DHHS) was 79. NH reported 500 people have “recovered” since yesterday’s update. After allowing for those who lost their lives today because of COVID-19, NH’s number of active cases went down by 441 since yesterday to 513. That’s 656 fewer active cases than we had a week ago. NH has added 627 new cases in the past week.
The last time NH’s active case count was lower than today was October 7. We were as low as 209 on Sep 4 and 798 active cases on Oct 21. On April 1, 2020, we had 320 cases in NH. Our peak was December 27, when we had 6,994 active cases.
NH has had 138.2 new cases per 100K residents in the past 14 days. Yesterday, it was 142.1. One week ago, it was 434.4.
NH’s positivity rate for PCR & antigen results in the past week is 2.5%. Yesterday it was 2.5%. One week ago, it was 5.0%.
DHHS is reporting a total of 1,421 people who have been hospitalized as of today because of COVID-19. This is anincrease of 6 people since yesterday’s update, and an increase of 18 since last week. There was 1 hospitalization reported today from Rockingham County; our county’s total hospitalization count is 314.
The number of patients currently hospitalized with COVID-19 is 54 which is 1 more than yesterday and 8 more than one week ago.
The cumulative total of ICU admissions increased by 0 since yesterday; the total number of ICU admissions is 418. We have seen an increase of 6 ICU admissions in the past seven days.
Today, 0 lives were lost due to COVID-19 for the period covered by this report, leaving the total of lives lost at 1,344 people who have died in NH due to COVID-19. We have lost 11 people in NH due to COVID-19 in the past week. There were 0 lives lost today from Rockingham County; the total number of people who have died from our county is 261.

• • • • • Communities • • • • • •

DHHS reports that the new cases reside in the following counties:
This info was not reported today.

All NH communities with populations over 100 and with 5 or more than active rates: 34: Manchester; 33: Nashua; 20: Keene; 18: Goffstown; 14: Hudson; 11: Bedford, Dover and Rochester; 10: Concord; 9: Claremont, Derry and Londonderry; 8: Laconia, Newport and Somersworth; 7: Belmont, Exeter, Rumney and Swanzey; 6: Berlin, Durham, Epping and Merrimack; 5: Ashland, Bow, Hampton, Hooksett, Lebanon, Raymond, Windham and Wolfeboro.

Towns’ rate of cumulative cases per 100k population over the last 14 days: Winchester (631); Swanzey (399); Keene (335); Claremont (261); Goffstown (177); Rochester (176); Bedford (164); Nashua (160); Manchester (152); Londonderry (142); Dover (132); Derry (129); Hudson (129); Merrimack (108); Salem (108); Concord (69). List includes all NH communities with populations over 100K and with cumulative rates over 5 for the past two weeks

• • • • • • DIAGNOSTIC TESTS IN NH • • • • • •

New positive cases by my math (Total of today’s cases minus previous total): 79
New positive cases per DHHS: Not reported
Total people who have tested positive: 98,303

• • • • • • ROCKINGHAM COUNTY (22.78% of NH’s population) • • • • • •

Total cases in Rockingham County: 24,158
New cases in Rockingham County: 15
Rockingham County’s percentage of new cases:
Rockingham County Positivity Rate: 3.9%

• • • • • • CHANGES BY AGES • • • • • •

(Totals showing changes since yesterday.)

0-9: 6% of Total cases: 5472 (+7); Hospitalizations: 9; Deaths: 0
10-19: 12% of Total cases: 12267 (+14); Hospitalizations: 10; Deaths: 0
20-29: 20% of Total cases: 19761 (+5); Hospitalizations: 32; Deaths: 1
30-39: 15% of Total cases: 14433 (+13); Hospitalizations: 62; Deaths: 6
40-49: 13% of Total cases: 12906 (+9); Hospitalizations: 103; Deaths: 12
50-59: 15% of Total cases: 15057 (+1); Hospitalizations: 185; Deaths: 34
60-69: 10% of Total cases: 9653 (+4); Hospitalizations: 341 (+3); Deaths: 132
70-79: 5% of Total cases: 4751 (+3); Hospitalizations: 359 (+1); Deaths: 322
80+: 4% of Total cases: 3914 (+3); Hospitalizations: 320 (+2); Deaths: 837
Unknown: 0% of Total cases: 89 (+0); Hospitalizations: 0; Deaths: 0

• • • • • • ACTIVE CASES • • • • • •

Active cases in NH: 513
Active cases in Rockingham County: 101

• • • • • • RECOVERED • • • • • •

Recovered today: 500
Total recovered: 96,446
Percentage of diagnosed cases that have recovered: 98.1%

• • • • • • HOSPITALIZATIONS IN NH • • • • • •

Currently hospitalized: 54
New people hospitalized from NH: 6
Total hospitalized patients: 1,421
Percentage of those who have been infected that have been hospitalized: 1.45%
Total admitted to ICU: 418
New hospitalized patients from Rockingham County: 1
Total hospitalized patients from Rockingham County: 314

• • • • • • DEATHS IN NH • • • • • •

Lives lost today: 0
Persons over 60 years of age who died today: 0
Persons under 60 years of age who died today: 0
Total fatalities in NH associated with COVID-19: 1,344
NH Residents diagnosed with COVID-19 that died: 1.37%
Lives lost in Rockingham County today: 0
Total lives lost in Rockingham County: 261

These are not simply numbers. We must not forget that these are all someone’s husband or wife, mother or father, sister or brother, son or daughter, friend or neighbor.

Hello, Salem!

As I looked at tonight’s numbers, I wasn’t sure if we should be excited or concerned, so I did a deeper analysis that usual, and reviewed some of the odd things in todays’ update.

DHHS’s press release
- They did not release yesterday’s press release until sometime today.
- They have not release today’s update
- There are often some odd numbers when they don’t release the press releases on time. (i.e. Salem’s cumulative cases went down yesterday). So, whenever this happens, I find myself wondering, “What are they hiding?”
Test Results
- DHHS used to report the number of test results returned, but they stopped providing this info a while back. Now we don’t know how many tests are run.
- Traditionally, there have been fewer test results reported by DHHS on Sunday and Mondays. (Monday’s updates are results reported as of 9:00 a.m.). I’m more comfortable with mid-late week numbers, after the system has had time to catch up with weekend numbers.
Positivity Rate
- Although we don’t know how many tests are run, we do know what percentage of cases are positive over a 2-week period.
- A week ago, Salem was 2.5%; it is now 4.4%.
- A week ago, NH was 2.9%; it is now 2.5%.
- Coos County is the County with the highest positivity rate at 4.0%. Grafton County is at 0.6%.
- 15 out of 16 NH communities with populations over 100K and with cumulative rates over 5 for the past two weeks have a positivity rate over 100. 14 of those 15 are higher than Salem.
New Cases per 100K residents
- Salem: 108
- NH: 138.2
- Lowest county: Merrimack (110.5)
- Highest county: Cheshire (222.2)
- Anything in the 50-100 range is considered moderate community transmission
- Anything over 100 is considered severe community transmission.
Recovered cases
- 500 recovered cases reported today. Not 499 or 501, but 500.
- Most weeks, the most cases reported as “recovered” are on a Sunday.
- The daily average from Monday to Saturday was 146, so this is significantly higher than the norm.

My conclusion: A high recovery rate and a low number of test results could give us a false sense of where we are. I feel guardedly optimistic. We have both reasons to celebrate AND reasons to continue to be cautious, so that we can stay safe, and always, be kind.

~Bonnie