COVID-19 Update 6 September 2021

COVID-19 Update 6 September 2021            

Tonight is Wednesday, Sept 8. This is an update from what I reported on Monday, (9/6), now that NH DHHS has updated their info through Labor Day. Tonight’s numbers now compare this Monday to last Monday
; the partial update on Monday was from last Monday through the last available info, which was Friday.

The next full update is scheduled for next MONDAY, September 15.

Note that the identified symptoms of COVID-19 have changed, based on vaccine status. The new symptoms are listed below, in my message.

  • Salem since last update: 55 new cases.
  • Total: 3,205 confirmed cases in Salem
  • We now have 72 active cases (65 last week)
  • 1 out of every 9 Salem residents has been infected.
  • Salem’s new cases per 100K for 14 days:  338 (324 last week)
  • Salem’s Positivity Rate for the past 2 weeks: 5.7%. (Last week: 7.8%).
  • Salem’s new cases account for 2.2% of the new cases reported this week. Last week we were responsible for 2.2%. (Salem has 2.2% of NH’s population.)
  • Fully vaccinated Salem residents: 14,325 (47.9%). Change from last week: +30 people (+0.1%)
  • Partially vaccinated Salem residents: 15,389 (51.5%). Change from last week: +16 people (0.1%).

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

  • New cases of COVID-19 cases in NH this week: 2,461. (2,358 last week)
  • 1 out of every 12 NH residents has been infected. (1:13 last week)
  • Of the new cases this week, 45 were healthcare workers, and 44 were in long-term care facilities. 7 deaths this week were from long-term care facilities.
  • Active COVID-19 cases in NH: 3,221 (2,927 last week; 155 active cases on June 28.)
  • Recovered in NH this week: 1,934. (1,555 last week.)
  • State Level of Transmission: Substantial in all counties 
  • New patients hospitalized this week because of COVID-19: 22 (9 last week.)
  • Current patients hospitalized because of COVID-19: 141 (119 one week ago)
  • New admissions to ICU this week because of COVID-19: (2 last week)
  • New deaths attributed to COVID-19 reported in NH this week: 14 (7 last week.)
  • Total NH individuals fully vaccinated: About 54.1% of our population, a one-week increase of 0.1%59.2% are partially vaccinated, a one-week increase of 0.2%.

On Tuesday, August 31, 2021, DHHS announced 218 new positive test results for COVID-19. Today’s results include 133 people who tested positive by PCR test and 85 who tested positive by antigen test. There are now 2,864 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire. [Of the new cases: Rockingham County: 52 (23.8%); Salem: 11 (5.1%)]

On Wednesday, September 1, 2021, DHHS announced 372 new positive test results for COVID-19. Today’s results include 177 people who tested positive by PCR test and 195 who tested positive by antigen test. There are now 2,963 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire. [Rockingham County: 93 (0.25%); Salem: 6 (1.8%)]

On Thursday, September 2, 2021, DHHS announced 348 new positive test results for COVID-19. Today’s results include 162 people who tested positive by PCR test and 186 who tested positive by antigen test. There are now 3,041 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire. [Rockingham County: 60 (17.2%); Salem: 6 (2.0%)]

On Friday, September 3, 2021, DHHS announced 444 new positive test results for COVID-19. Today’s results include 264 people who tested positive by PCR test and 180 who tested positive by antigen test. There are now 3,120 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire. [Rockingham County: 98 (22.1%); Salem: 11 (2.8%)]

On Tuesday, September 7, 2021, DHHS announced 248 new positive test results for COVID-19 for Sunday, September 5. Sunday’s results include 153 people who tested positive by PCR test and 95 who tested positive by antigen test. DHHS also announced 371 cases from Friday, September 3 (220 by PCR test and 151 by antigen test) and 460 cases from Saturday, September 4 (307 by PCR test and 153 by antigen test). The data for Monday, September 6 will be included in Wednesday’s COVID-19 update. There are now 3,221 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire. [Rockingham County: 223 (20.7%); Salem: 21 (0.2%)]

Each day, DHHS says that “Several cases are still under investigation. Additional information from ongoing investigations will be incorporated into future COVID-19 updates.” Percentages shown are % of new cases. 

• • • • • • DIAGNOSTIC TESTS IN NH • • • • • •

  • Total people who have tested positive: 109,716 (107,474last week)
  • New positive cases this week by my math: 2,242 (2,172 last week)
  • New positive cases per DHHS: 2,461 (2,358 last week)
  • Rockingham County (22.78% of NH’s population)
    • Total positive tests in Rockingham County: 26,765 (26,239 last week)
    • New cases this week: 526 (533 last week)
    • % of this week’s cases from Rockingham County: 23.5%

• • • • • NEW CASES • • • • • • 

DHHS reports that the new cases this week reside in the following counties and NH’s two major cities: 

  • Belknap: 162
  • Carroll: 99
  • Cheshire: 133
  • Coos: 44
  • Grafton: 116
  • Manchester: 368
  • Merrimack: 175
  • Nashua: 288
  • Rest of Hillsborough: 131
  • Rockingham County: 528
  • Strafford: 205
  • Sullivan: 53

The county of residence is being determined for 79 new cases. Several cases are still under investigation. Additional information from ongoing investigations will be incorporated into future COVID-19 updates. 

• • • • • ACTIVE CASES • • • • • • 

  • NH has 3,221 active cases. Last week we had 2,927. We were down to 155 cases as recently as June 28.
  • All counties have active cases: (Current vs. Last week)
    • Belknap: 214 (181 last week)
    • Carroll: 138 (115)
    • Cheshire: 179 (146)
    • Coos: 65 (56)
    • Grafton: 160 (164)
    • Manchester: 231 (232)
    • Merrimack: 367 (246)
    • Nashua: 158 (130)
    • Rest of Hillsborough: 490 (418)
    • Rockingham: 686 (680)
    • Strafford: 269 (288)
    • Sullivan: 68 (50)
    • Unknown: 196 (236)
  • 137 communities now have 5 or more active cases, accounting for 3,101 (96.3%) of the 3,221 total active cases. 
  • Last week it was 126 communities, responsible for 2,564 total active cases (87.6%) of the 2,564 total active cases. (All others have less than 5 active cases.)
  • 7 communities have more active cases than Salem. (No change in the count from last week, although some communities have moved off the list and were replaced by others): Manchester, Nashua, Concord, Derry, Hudson, Rochester and Keene. (The list last week was Manchester, Nashua, Rochester, Derry, Merrimack, Concord, and Laconia, with a tie with Dover and Salem.
    • Salem (27; was 18 last week)

• • • • • CUMULATIVE CASES  • • • • • • 

  • 1 out of every 9 Salem residents has been infected (1:10 two weeks ago)
  • 1 out of every 12 residents of Rockingham County
  • 1 out of every 12 residents of NH have been infected (1:13 last week)

• • • • • • RECOVERED • • • • • •

  • Total recovered: 104,065 (103,131 last week)
  • Recovered this week: 898 (819 last week)
  • Percentage of diagnosed cases that have recovered: 95.8% (98.3% in late July.) 

• • • • • COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION • • • • • • 

Recent CDC recommendations are based on Community Transmissions. 

Per NH Department of Health and Human Services some time agoThe overall level of community transmission is defined using three metrics.  A community is then assigned an overall level based on the highest-level determination for any specific metric. NH Metrics are: 

New Cases per 100k over 14 days: Scale: Minimal: <50; Moderate: 50 – 100; Substantial: >100. 

New Hospitalizations per 100k over 14 days: Scale: Minimal: <10; Moderate: 10 – 20; Substantial: >20. 

Average PCR Test Positivity Rate over 7 days: Scale: Minimal: <5%; Moderate: 5% – 10; Substantial: >10%

More recently, they stopped the hospital metric, and now only report the New Cases per 100K, and Average PCR Test Positivity Rate.

NH Level of Transmission: Substantial (Last week: Substantial)
NH New Cases per 100K over 14 days: 325 (311 last week)

7-Day Total Test Positivity Rate: 5.0% (5.4% last week)

Every county in NH, as well as Manchester and Nashua, are at Substantial risk for community transmission.

Cases per 100K residents:

  • NH: 325 (NH last week: 311)
    • Belknap: 471 (473 last week)
    • Carroll: 378 (327 last week)
    • Cheshire: 334 (297 last week)
    • Coos: 273 (273 last week)
    • Grafton: 256 (279 last week)
    • Manchester: 295 (315 last week)
    • Merrimack: 309 (243 last week)
    • Nashua: 250 (238 last week)
    • Rest of Hillsborough excluding Manchester and Nashua: 310 (266 last week)
    • Rockingham: 314 (306 last week)
    • Strafford: 318 (307 last week)
    • Sullivan: 206 (218 last week)
  • Positivity Rate:
    • NH: 5.0% (was 5.4% last week)
    • Belknap: 7.0% (5.8% last week)
    • Carroll: 6.3% (6.7% last week)
    • Cheshire: 2.7% (3.5% last week)
    • Coos: 6.4% (7.5% last week)
    • Grafton: 1.3% (2.0% last week)
    • Manchester: 5.4 (5.4% last week)
    • Merrimack: 7.4% (5.13% last week)
    • Nashua: 5.3% (4.63% last week)
    • Rest of Hillsborough excluding Manchester and Nashua: 5.6 (6.7% last week)
    • Rockingham: 6.8% (7.4% last week)
    • Strafford: 7.0% (8.6% last week)
    • Sullivan: 5.2% (2.9% last week)
  • There are 108 NH communities with a positivity rate of more than 0. (109 a week ago). There are 106 communities with a positivity rate higher than 2%. (107 a week ago). 86 communities have more than 5% (81 a week ago). 27communities have a positivity rate of more than 10%. (28 a week ago.) 

• • • • • • HOSPITALIZATIONS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • Currently hospitalized: 141 (Last week: 119)
  • Total hospitalized patients: 1,731
  • New people hospitalized from NH: 22
  • Percentage of those who have been infected that have been hospitalized: 1.6%
  • Total admitted to ICU: 513
  • New ICU admissions this week: 7
  • Total hospitalized patients from Rockingham County: 376
  • New hospitalized patients from Rockingham County: 1 since last week

• • • • • • DEATHS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • Total fatalities in NH associated with COVID-19: 1,430
  • Lives lost this week: 14
  • Lives lost last week: 14
  • Lives lost from those in Long-term care settings: 7
  • Persons over 60 years of age who died this week: 10
  • Persons under 60 years of age who died this week: 4
  • NH Residents diagnosed with COVID-19 that died: 1.30%
  • Total lives lost in Rockingham County: 279
  • Lives lost in Rockingham County this week: 1

• • • • • • CHANGES BY AGES • • • • • •

(Totals showing changes since last Monday.)

  • 0-9: New Infections: 6612 (+220); Hospitalizations: 16, (+2); Deaths: 0, (+0)
  • 10-19: New Infections: 13651 (+296); Hospitalizations: 14, (+1); Deaths: 0, (+0)
  • 20-29: New Infections: 21837 (+390); Hospitalizations: 41, (+2); Deaths: 1, (+0)
  • 30-39: New Infections: 16358 (+344); Hospitalizations: 75, (+1); Deaths: 7, (+0)
  • 40-49: New Infections: 14408 (+273); Hospitalizations: 130, (+4); Deaths: 15, (+1)
  • 50-59: New Infections: 16526 (+299); Hospitalizations: 245, (+2); Deaths: 39, (+3)
  • 60-69: New Infections: 10753 (+254); Hospitalizations: 389, (+3); Deaths: 147, (+1)
  • 70-79: New Infections: 5301 (+103); Hospitalizations: 420, (+2); Deaths: 346, (+5)
  • 80+: New Infections: 4203 (+61); Hospitalizations: 401, (+5); Deaths: 875, (+4)
  • Unknown: New Infections: 67 (+2); Hospitalizations: 0, (+0); Deaths: 0, (+0)

  New infections in the past 4 weeks vs. all NH cases 

  • 0-9: 9.8% vs. 6% (+3.8%)
  • 10-19: 11.8% vs. 12.4% (-0.6%)
  • 20-29: 18% vs. 19.9% (-1.9%)
  • 30-39: 16.7% vs. 14.9% (+1.8%)
  • 40-49: 12.9% vs. 13.1% (-0.2%)
  • 50-59: 13.1% vs. 15.1% (-2%)
  • 60-69: 10.2% vs. 9.8% (+0.4%)
  • 70-79: 5% vs. 4.8% (+0.2%)
  • 80+: 2.6% vs. 3.8% (-1.2%)
  • Unknown: 0% vs. 0.1% (-0.1%)

Additional Age Stats

  • Under 60: 1,822 new cases this week; 12 hospitalizations, 4 deaths
  • Last week: 1,796 new cases; 2 hospitalizations, 1 deaths
  • 60+: 418 new cases; 10 hospitalizations; 10 deaths
  • Last week: 375 new cases; 7 hospitalizations; 13 deaths
  • 477 children under 18 are included in this week’s new cases. (413 last week)
  • 19.4% of new cases announced by DHHS this week are kids under 18 years old. (17.5% last week.)
  • School Dashboard:
    • I continue to question the accuracy of the School Dashboard
      • At one time, our Woodbury School showed stats from the Peter Woodbury School in Bedford. School names now have the town included so hopefully that won’t happen again.
      • There are still problems. When selecting “Both onsite and offsite cases” the “Last Case Reported” Date for both Lancaster and St. Joe’s reports “No Cases.” However, there are “No Cases” when looking at “Offsite cases” but there are dates for “Onsite cases.”
    • No active cases are reported in Salem’s schools, although today parents are reporting at least one case at Lancaster.
    • 205 Salem students have “recovered” from COVID-19.

• • • • • • Institutional Outbreaks in NH • • • • • •  

NH DHHS reported eight institutional outbreaks on Thursday, Sept. 2. Two are new. No institutions were removed from the outbreak list this week. The outbreaks, with changes from last week, are:

  • Alpine Health Center: 19 residents (+1), 12 staff (+2) and 2 deaths (+2) 
  • Colonial Poplin Nursing & Rehabilitation: 8 residents, 4 staff (new to list this week)
  • Epsom Health Center: 7 residents, 8 staff (no change for 2 weeks)
  • Federal Correctional Institution in Berlin: 36 residents, 6 (+3) staff
  • Laconia Rehabilitation Center: 20 residents (+2), 10 staff (+2), 4 deaths (+2)
  • Maple Wood Cheshire County Nursing Home: 2 residents, 1 staff, 2 deaths (no change from last week) 
  • Rockingham County Nursing Home and Rehab: 2 residents, 4 staff (+1), 1 death (+1)
  • Windham Terrace Assisted Living: 4 residents, 1 staff (new to list this week)

All other outbreaks, which can be seen here, were closed as of this outbreak update.

• • • • • • Vaccinations in NH • • • • • •  

NH DHHS reports 757,91 (54.1%) people are fully vaccinated, an increase of 1,381 people (0.1%) since last week. 

830,977 (59.2%) NH residents have been partially vaccinated, an increase of 1,767 (0.2%)
people since last week. 

These are not simply numbers. We must not forget that these are all someone’s husband or wife, mother or father, sister or brother, son or daughter, friend or neighbor.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Hello, Salem!

Here are some random thoughts from this past week:

The worst is yet to come?

The Northeast will likely experience another jump in Covid cases tied to the highly transmissible delta variant. “I think our true delta wave is going to start to build after Labor Day here in the Northeast and the northern part of the country.” Story here.

SYMPTOMS

Concerns continue to grow for the Delta variant of COVID-19, which now accounts for 93% of all new COVID-19 infections. Descriptions of symptoms have been updated:

Ranking of Symptoms for Covid-19 Infection in the Unvaccinated

  1. Headache
  2. Sore Throat
  3. Runny Nose
  4. Fever
  5. Persistent cough 

Loss of smell now comes in at number 9, and shortness of breath is way down the list at number 30.

Ranking of Symptoms for Covid-19 Infection in the Partially Vaccinated

  1. Headache
  2. Runny Nose
  3. Sore throat
  4. Sneezing
  5. Persistent Cough

Sneezing, which was never thought to be a symptom in the original Covid strain, is now ranked more common than a cough, for a reported symptom in those with only one dose of the vaccine.

Ranking of Symptoms for Covid-19 Infection in the Fully Vaccinated

  1. Headache
  2. Runny Nose
  3. Sneezing
  4. Sore throat
  5. Loss of smell

A cough ranks 8 on the list for fully vaccinated people, and a fever ranks 12. Shortness of breath is way down the list at number 29.

VARIANTS per WHO:

Current Variants of High Consequence:

Fortunately, no variants have yet reached this level.

Current Variants of Concern:

Alpha (B.1.1.7); Beta (B.1.351); Gamma (P.1) and Delta (B.1.617.2.

Current Variants of Interest:

Eta (B.1.525); Iota (B.1526); Kappa (B.1.617.1); Lamba (C.37); Mu (B.1.621)

There are also 12 additional variants that are currently designated for alerts for further monitoring, including C.1.2.

Mu (B.1.621), Delta (B.1.617.2), Lambda (C.37) : Here’s a Breakdown of COVID Variants and What We Know So Far.

NEW VARIANTS

The longer COVID, and its variants are allowed to be transmitted, the more likely we are of having a mutation that is highly contagious, highly deadly, and can’t be stopped by vaccines or cured by medicine.


Mu

The World Health Organization is monitoring a new coronavirus variant called “Mu,” which the agency says is now labeled a “variant of interest.” Health officials are paying attention, but don’t consider Mu to be “an immediate threat.” They are concerned that Mu might possibly vaccine-resistant.

Mu was first identified in Columbia, but is now found in 38 countries, especially in South America and in Europe, as well as the US. The Mu COVID variant, , is found in Alaska (4%), Virgin Islands (3%), and then Hawaii, Maine and Connecticut, with 1% of all sequenced tests showing the Mu variation.

C.1.2

A new variant, C.1.2, has been identified with between 44 and 59 mutations away from the original virus, the most mutations thus far identified. Scientists are worried about the mutation rate of the C.1.2 lineage, which is nearly two times faster than the global rate. 

It contains many mutations which have been associated with increased transmissibility and a heightened ability to evade antibodies in other variants. According to scientists, more research is needed to determine if the variant is more dangerous to humans than the Delta variant.

The C.1.2 lineage accounts for fewer than one percent of all COVID-19 cases worldwide, although it’s been detected in nine countries, including Mauritius, Zimbabwe, Botswana, China, New Zealand, Portugal, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Cases have been found in all but three provinces in South Africa.

C.1.2 has yet to be classified as a variant of concern or even of interest by the WHO, so it has not yet been given a formal name yet.  I’m guessing that the WHO will continue their naming procedure, and this will be called “Nu.” (There is talk of WHO changing their naming conventions away from the Greek alphabet, to more conventional names – Aiden to Zoe – such as is used for hurricanes.) But whatever this is eventually called, it will also need to be watched closely. Read more here and here and here and here and here.

VARIANTS IN NH

Per WMUR, as of Sept 1, NH had:

  • Number of people diagnosed with COVID-19: 108,713 (106,525 last week) 
  • Number of B.1.1.7 variant (Alpha; UK) cases: 1,250 (No change) 
  • Number of B.1.351 variant (Beta; South Africa) cases: 2 (No change)
  • Number of P.1 variant (Gamma; Brazil) cases: 203 (No change)
  • Number of B.1.617.2 variant (Delta; India) cases: 466 (was 363 last week)

Since not every positive case is sequenced, these numbers aren’t as useful as they might be, especially since we don’t know how many are tested.

At the Governor’s press conference on 8/12, the Governor’s team reported that just under 40% of all positive tests that were examined for variants were positive with the Delta variation. It would be helpful if they would provide the percentage of variants tested regularly. It appears that it might be as high as 100% now?

Vaccines:

The difference between boosters and a third dose? Read here.

Boosters are currently recommended for those with HIV, AIDS, cancer, and transplant patients leading to weakened immune systems so they’re unable to build the necessary level of immunity to avoid becoming another breakthrough case. 

Researchers found a lower-than-normal immune response to the messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccines for patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs). 

Vaccine Fact checking. Story here.

Breakthrough COVID-19 symptoms:

  • While some vaccinated people are getting COVID, it is still rare, and 99.9% of all recent hospitalizations and deaths associated with COVID-19 are people who are not vaccinated.
  • CDC reports that 79% of those who are found to have breakthrough infections have a cough, headache, sore throat, myalgia and fever.
  • NBC says approximately 1 in 900 vaccinated people have had breakthrough infections. The vast majority of those had mild or no symptoms. 

Five days ago, Massachusetts news station WWLP reported there have been 15,739 breakthrough cases of Covid-19 in fully vaccinated Massachusetts residents so far, with 3,098 reported in just one week. Those cases tend to be much milder than the infections in those without vaccines. Those who are fully vaccinated and have breakthrough cases are the immunocompromised.

CNN reported on Wed. Sept 8 that among the vaccinated adults who required hospitalization that the median age was 73, and 71% of those had three or more underlying conditions (i.e. diabetes or heart disease). 

Additional suggested reading:

Scientists suspect the cause of long COVID-19 symptoms: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) reactivation. Story herehere and here

I provided an incomplete update on Monday, because NH DHHS had not issued an update since Friday. This has been updated on Wednesday, with data through Monday. My next full update will be next Monday. In the meantime, stay safe, and always, be kind. 

~Bonnie



A new study shows that unvaccinated people are 17x more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than people who are fully vaccinated.





Global vs US Changes:




Useful links

Sources used to create these reports:

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