Recently, several people have questioned my formula.
I stand by my numbers.
Here are the base numbers:
The most recent official population of Salem is 29,791.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/salemtownrockinghamcountynewhampshire/AGE295219
The most recent cumulative total of Salem residents (Nov. 22) is 621.
https://www.nh.gov/covid19/index.htm
Here are the formulas:
- To get the ratio: (Population / Cases)
- To get the number of cases to reach the ratio: (Population/Ratio)
- To get the percentage: ((Cases / Population) x 100)
Current ratio:
29,791 / 621 = 47.97, rounded to 48.
Current percentage:
621 / 29,791 = 2.08%, rounded to 2.1%.
So we can say one out of every 48 Salem Residents have had COVID-19.
We can also say it’s 1:48 or 2.1%.
Some people seem to be afraid that we are rapidly reaching one out of five or even one out of one. We are a very long way away from that, and I doubt we will ever reach any where near that level. Hopefully, I am right.
The lower the ratio goes, a bigger increase in cases is needed to move the needle to the next number. Like this:
- 1:50 is 596 Salem residents with infections. (population/ratio)
- 1:10 is 2,979, five times as many cases as 1:50.
- 1:5 is 5,958 people, twice as many cases as 1:10.
- 1:2 is 14,896 people, five times as many cases as 1:10.
- 1:1 is 29,791 people, everyone in Salem and twice as many as 1:2.
I don’t see us getting anywhere near that that high.
This chart shows the highest Salem numbers can go.
Obviously, it can’t get below 1:1, or above 100%!
| Population | Ratio 1:x | Cases | Increase in cases | Percentage |
| 29,791 | 100.0 | 298 | 3 | 1.00% |
| 29,791 | 99.0 | 301 | 3 | 1.01% |
| 29,791 | 98.0 | 304 | 3 | 1.02% |
| 29,791 | 97.0 | 307 | 3 | 1.03% |
| 29,791 | 96.0 | 310 | 3 | 1.04% |
| 29,791 | 95.0 | 314 | 3 | 1.05% |
| 29,791 | 94.0 | 317 | 3 | 1.06% |
| 29,791 | 93.0 | 320 | 3 | 1.08% |
| 29,791 | 92.0 | 324 | 3 | 1.09% |
| 29,791 | 91.0 | 327 | 4 | 1.10% |
| 29,791 | 90.0 | 331 | 4 | 1.11% |
| 29,791 | 89.0 | 335 | 4 | 1.12% |
| 29,791 | 88.0 | 339 | 4 | 1.14% |
| 29,791 | 87.0 | 342 | 4 | 1.15% |
| 29,791 | 86.0 | 346 | 4 | 1.16% |
| 29,791 | 85.0 | 350 | 4 | 1.18% |
| 29,791 | 84.0 | 355 | 4 | 1.19% |
| 29,791 | 83.0 | 359 | 4 | 1.20% |
| 29,791 | 82.0 | 363 | 4 | 1.22% |
| 29,791 | 81.0 | 368 | 4 | 1.23% |
| 29,791 | 80.0 | 372 | 5 | 1.25% |
| 29,791 | 79.0 | 377 | 5 | 1.27% |
| 29,791 | 78.0 | 382 | 5 | 1.28% |
| 29,791 | 77.0 | 387 | 5 | 1.30% |
| 29,791 | 76.0 | 392 | 5 | 1.32% |
| 29,791 | 75.0 | 397 | 5 | 1.33% |
| 29,791 | 74.0 | 403 | 5 | 1.35% |
| 29,791 | 73.0 | 408 | 6 | 1.37% |
| 29,791 | 72.0 | 414 | 6 | 1.39% |
| 29,791 | 71.0 | 420 | 6 | 1.41% |
| 29,791 | 70.0 | 426 | 6 | 1.43% |
| 29,791 | 69.0 | 432 | 6 | 1.45% |
| 29,791 | 68.0 | 438 | 6 | 1.47% |
| 29,791 | 67.0 | 445 | 7 | 1.49% |
| 29,791 | 66.0 | 451 | 7 | 1.52% |
| 29,791 | 65.0 | 458 | 7 | 1.54% |
| 29,791 | 64.0 | 465 | 7 | 1.56% |
| 29,791 | 63.0 | 473 | 7 | 1.59% |
| 29,791 | 62.0 | 481 | 8 | 1.61% |
| 29,791 | 61.0 | 488 | 8 | 1.64% |
| 29,791 | 60.0 | 497 | 8 | 1.67% |
| 29,791 | 59.0 | 505 | 8 | 1.69% |
| 29,791 | 58.0 | 514 | 9 | 1.72% |
| 29,791 | 57.0 | 523 | 9 | 1.75% |
| 29,791 | 56.0 | 532 | 9 | 1.79% |
| 29,791 | 55.0 | 542 | 10 | 1.82% |
| 29,791 | 54.0 | 552 | 10 | 1.85% |
| 29,791 | 53.0 | 562 | 10 | 1.89% |
| 29,791 | 52.0 | 573 | 11 | 1.92% |
| 29,791 | 51.0 | 584 | 11 | 1.96% |
| 29,791 | 50.0 | 596 | 12 | 2.00% |
| 29,791 | 49.0 | 608 | 12 | 2.04% |
| 29,791 | 48.0 | 621 | 13 | 2.08% |
| 29,791 | 47.0 | 634 | 13 | 2.13% |
| 29,791 | 46.0 | 648 | 14 | 2.17% |
| 29,791 | 45.0 | 662 | 14 | 2.22% |
| 29,791 | 44.0 | 677 | 15 | 2.27% |
| 29,791 | 43.0 | 693 | 16 | 2.33% |
| 29,791 | 42.0 | 709 | 16 | 2.38% |
| 29,791 | 41.0 | 727 | 17 | 2.44% |
| 29,791 | 40.0 | 745 | 18 | 2.50% |
| 29,791 | 39.0 | 764 | 19 | 2.56% |
| 29,791 | 38.0 | 784 | 20 | 2.63% |
| 29,791 | 37.0 | 805 | 21 | 2.70% |
| 29,791 | 36.0 | 828 | 22 | 2.78% |
| 29,791 | 35.0 | 851 | 24 | 2.86% |
| 29,791 | 34.0 | 876 | 25 | 2.94% |
| 29,791 | 33.0 | 903 | 27 | 3.03% |
| 29,791 | 32.0 | 931 | 28 | 3.13% |
| 29,791 | 31.0 | 961 | 30 | 3.23% |
| 29,791 | 30.0 | 993 | 32 | 3.33% |
| 29,791 | 29.0 | 1,027 | 34 | 3.45% |
| 29,791 | 28.0 | 1,064 | 37 | 3.57% |
| 29,791 | 27.0 | 1,103 | 39 | 3.70% |
| 29,791 | 26.0 | 1,146 | 42 | 3.85% |
| 29,791 | 25.0 | 1,192 | 46 | 4.00% |
| 29,791 | 24.0 | 1,241 | 50 | 4.17% |
| 29,791 | 23.0 | 1,295 | 54 | 4.35% |
| 29,791 | 22.0 | 1,354 | 59 | 4.55% |
| 29,791 | 21.0 | 1,419 | 64 | 4.76% |
| 29,791 | 20.0 | 1,490 | 71 | 5.00% |
| 29,791 | 19.0 | 1,568 | 78 | 5.26% |
| 29,791 | 18.0 | 1,655 | 87 | 5.56% |
| 29,791 | 17.0 | 1,752 | 97 | 5.88% |
| 29,791 | 16.0 | 1,862 | 110 | 6.25% |
| 29,791 | 15.0 | 1,986 | 124 | 6.67% |
| 29,791 | 14.0 | 2,128 | 142 | 7.14% |
| 29,791 | 13.0 | 2,292 | 164 | 7.69% |
| 29,791 | 12.0 | 2,483 | 191 | 8.33% |
| 29,791 | 11.0 | 2,708 | 226 | 9.09% |
| 29,791 | 10.0 | 2,979 | 271 | 10.00% |
| 29,791 | 9.0 | 3,310 | 331 | 11.11% |
| 29,791 | 8.0 | 3,724 | 414 | 12.50% |
| 29,791 | 7.0 | 4,256 | 532 | 14.29% |
| 29,791 | 6.0 | 4,965 | 709 | 16.67% |
| 29,791 | 5.0 | 5,958 | 993 | 20.00% |
| 29,791 | 4.0 | 7,447 | 1,490 | 25.00% |
| 29,791 | 3.0 | 9,930 | 2,483 | 33.33% |
| 29,791 | 2.0 | 14,895 | 4,965 | 50.00% |
| 29,791 | 1.0 | 29,791 | 14,896 | 100.00% |