Posted on by Bonnie

COVID-19 Update November 23

COVID-19 Update November 23

  • Total: 640 confirmed cases in Salem
  • 1 out of 46 Salem residents have been infected 
  • Salem Today: 19 new cases today; 138 active cases

• • • • • • Community Transmission • • • • • •

Community Transmission (per NH Department of Health and Human Services): The overall level of community transmission is defined using three metrics.  A community is then assigned an overall level based on the highest-level determination for any specific metric. The metric which is changing the most right now is the number of new cases.

  • NH Community Transmission Metrics:
    • New Cases per 100k over 14 days: 
      • Scale: Minimal: <50; Moderate: 50 – 100; Substantial: >100. 
      • Daily average: 305.0 Substantial
    • New hospitalizations per 100k over 14 days:
      • Scale: Minimal: <10; Moderate: 10 – 20; Substantial: >20, 
      • Daily average: 1.3%
    • Average PCR Test Positivity Rate over 7 days:
      • Scale: Minimal: <5%; Moderate: 5% – 10%; Substantial: >10%
      • Daily average: 4.1%
    • New Hampshire’s Level of Transmission: Substantial
  • Rockingham County Transmission:
    • New Cases per 100k over 14 days: 384.6
    • New hospitalizations per 100k over 14 days: 1.0
    • Average PCR Test Positivity Rate over 7 days: 5.0
    • Rockingham County’s Level of Transmission: Substantial
  • Other NH Locations
    • Manchester’s PCR positivity rate dropped slightly to 9.9, bringing it back to the moderate transmission level. Belknap County is also in the moderate transmission level for this metric.
    • Nashua has dropped to a positivity rate at a minimal level of community transmission. 
    • The highest level of the three metrics determines the level of community transmission. All 10 counties, and our two major cities, remain at a substantial level of transmission, as all have new cases per 100K over 2 weeks.

• • • • • • TODAY’S SPOTLIGHT • • • • • •

  • With today’s new cases, we have now had 640 people in Salem who have been infected. That’s an increase of 19 cases. 
  • Salem’s active cases have increased by 11 to 138. This means that 8 people from Salem were marked as “recovered,” before adding in the 19 new cases.
  • Today in NH, the number of new cases is 444 per NH DHHS; the number of cumulative cases went up by 445. This count has been higher on five different days, four of which have been in the last week.
  • The number of persons being monitored in NH is 6,600. There were more yesterday, but today is the second highest.
  • There are 4,304 active cases in NH today. This number has gone up every day since October 28.
  • One more person was hospitalized in NH with COVID-19, bringing the cumulative total to 831. The current hospital census is 121, an increase of 4 patients. This is five less than the 126 that were hospitalized on May 13. That was the highest since this info became available to us on April 24, when there were 89 COVID-19 patients.
  • One more patient was admitted to the ICU. The state does not report the number of people who are currently in the ICU, only the cumulative total, which is 277. We do not know the ages of those patients.
  • Four people died yesterday from COVID-19, but happily, none passed away today.
  • Hillsboro County has had more than 8,126 people infected. Rockingham County is second with 4,306 people.
  • Hillsboro County currently has 1,738 people infected. 1,141 of those are from Manchester (743) and Nashua (398). Rockingham County currently has 913 people who are currently considered to be infectious.

• • • • • • Communities • • • • • •

  • NH DHHS says that the new cases reside in Rockingham (105), Hillsborough County other than Manchester and Nashua (70), Merrimack (49), Strafford (33), Belknap (28), Carroll (11), Cheshire (11), and Grafton (11) counties, and in the cities of Manchester (82) and Nashua (22). The county of residence is being determined for twenty-three new cases. 
  • Active cases:
    • 339 people were reported as “recovered” today; these are reflected in today’s changes. 
    • Plymouth had a significant number of people who recovered (12); they now have less than 20 active cases, and have been removed from the list.
    • 11 of the remaining communities that had 20 active cases yesterday have fewer active cases today than yesterday.
    • Two communities — Allenstown and Freemont — now have more than 20 active cases
    • After these adjustments, there are now 42 NH communities with more than 20 active cases. Between them, these communities have 3,135 active case, accounting for 73% of all active cases.
    • Manchester now has over 700 active cases. Keene now has 50 people who are currently infectious. Durham now has less than 100 active cases.
    • Five communities — Manchester, Nashua, Salem, Concord, and Derry— have more than 100 active cases.
    • Only Manchester and Nashua have more active cases than Salem.
    • Notable net changes in active cases from yesterday: Manchester: 743 (+56). Concord: 112 (+12). Merrimack: 97 (+12). Salem: 138 (+11). Bedford: 80 (+10). Tilton: 35 (+10). Fremont: 24 (+7). Seabrook: 47 (+7). Hooksett: 66 (+6). Somersworth: 30 (+6). Milford: 41 (+5). Rochester: 81 (+5). Nashua: 396 (+4). Allenstown: 21 (+3). Derry: 110 (+3). Plaistow: 32 (+3). Windham: 45 (+3). Auburn: 22 (+2). Keene: 50 (+2). Raymond: 42 (+2). Atkinson: 26 (+1). Hampton: 69 (+1). Belmont: 25 (+0). Exeter: 26 (+0). Goffstown: 53 (+0). Hollis: 21 (+0). Litchfield: 29 (+0). Meredith: 28 (+0). Pelham: 47 (+0). Rindge: 29 (+0). Weare: 20 (+0). Amherst: 20 (-1). Hampstead: 21 (-1). Colebrook: 21 (-2). Laconia: 42 (-3). Stewartstown: 42 (-3). Portsmouth: 56 (-4). Londonderry: 74 (-5). Newport: 29 (-6). Dover: 66 (-7). Hudson: 88 (-7). Durham: 91 (-12).  
  • Cumulative Cases
    • There are now 72 communities that have had 50 or more cases.
    • Epsom, Hopkinton and Rye now have more than 50 cumulative cases.
    • Rochester now has more than 300 total cases. Nashua now has more than 1,800.
    • Manchester, Nashua, Derry, Salem and Bedford have had more than 500 cases.
    • Some of the communities with 50 or more total cases, and significant changes in cumulative cases since yesterday are: Manchester: 3378 (+82). Nashua: 1820 (+22). Concord: 463 (+20). Salem: 640 (+19). Merrimack: 345 (+17). Bedford: 581 (+12). Derry: 649 (+12). Tilton: 66 (+11). Goffstown: 405 (+9). Milford: 220 (+9). Rochester: 305 (+9). Seabrook: 135 (+9). Fremont: 69 (+8). Hooksett: 239 (+8). Keene: 129 (+7). Somersworth: 98 (+7). Durham: 363 (+6). Hampton: 211 (+6). Londonderry: 384 (+6). Portsmouth: 312 (+6). Pelham: 212 (+5). Pembroke: 91 (+5). Raymond: 153 (+5). Windham: 234 (+5). Dover: 361 (+4). Plaistow: 131 (+4). Stratham: 56 (+4).  

• • • • • • DIAGNOSTIC TESTS IN NH • • • • • •

  • New positive cases by my math (Total of today’s cases minus yesterday’s total): 4447
  • New positive cases per DHHS: 445
    • 316 PCR tests
    • 129 Antigen tests
  • Children under 18 in new cases: 49
  • Total positive cases in NH: 18,042
  • Percentage of today’s tests that are positive per DHHS: 3.7%
  • Total PCR test results reported today (Positive results plus negative results): 1,903
  • The daily average of diagnostic (PCR) tests reported from 7 days ago to today: 2,475
  • New negative results reported today: 1,459
  • Total negative cases in NH: 388,185

• • • • • • ROCKINGHAM COUNTY • • • • • • 

  • Total cases in Rockingham County: 4,306
  • New cases in Rockingham County: 105
  • Rockingham County: New cases per 100K residents: 33.9
  • Rockingham County 1-week average per 100K residents: 33.1
  • Rockingham County Positivity Rate: 5.0%
  • Percent of all cases from Rockingham County: 23.9%
  • Percent of all cases from either Hillsborough County or Rockingham County: 69%.

• • • • • • ACTIVE CASES • • • • • •

  • Active cases in NH: 4,304
  • Active cases in Rockingham County: 913
  • Percent of NH’s active cases that are in Rockingham County: 21.2%

• • • • • • OTHER TEST RESULTS • • • • • • 

  • New antibody tests: 30
  • Total antibody tests (No break downs of positive vs. negative): 32,939
  • The daily average of antibody tests reported from 7 days ago to today: 40

• • • • • • CHANGES BY AGES • • • • • •  
(Total infections, percentage of all infections, and increase from yesterday to today)

  • 0-9: 646 = 4% (+19).
  • 10-19: 1808 = 10% (+51).
  • 20-29: 3495 = 19% (+104).
  • 30-39: 2554 = 14% (+70).
  • 40-49: 2319 = 13% (+55).
  • 50-59: 2755 = 15% (+65).
  • 60-69: 1989 = 11% (+38).
  • 70-79: 1103 = 6% (+19).
  • 80+: 1360 = 8% (+23).
  • Unknown: 13 = 0% (+0).

• • • • • • RECOVERED IN NH • • • • • • 

  • Announced today: 339
  • Total Recovered: 13,226
  • Percentage of diagnosed cases that have recovered: 73.3%

• • • • • • HOSPITALIZATIONS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • New: 1
  • Current: 121
  • Total Hospitalized: 831
  • Percentage of those who have been infected that have been hospitalized: 4.61%
  • Total admitted to ICU: 277

• • • • • • DEATHS IN NH • • • • • • 

  • Lives lost today: 0
  • Persons over 60 years of age who died today: 0
  • Persons under 60 years of age who died today: 0
  • Total fatalities in NH associated with COVID-19: 512
  • NH Residents diagnosed with COVID-19 that died: 2.84%
  • Lives lost in Rockingham today: 0

These are not simply numbers. We must not forget that these are all someone’s husband or wife, mother or father, sister or brother, son or daughter, friend or neighbor.

We rise by lifting others.

~Author unknown


Hello, Salem!

I have three things to share tonight:

  • On Thursday, NH DHHS announced 12 long-term care facilities with outbreaks. (None are from Salem.) That list is below. 
  • NH now has 18,000+ total cases. I have updated the graph showing the timeline of cases by 1,000. That is also below.
  • There have been several people who have questioned my formula. I wrote an explanation of this, but it is too long to include here. If you are interested in the “1 out of 46” statistic, you can learn more about it here: https://www.bonnie4salem.us/ratios-for-covid-19/. I hope that this will answer the questions, and alleviate some concerns that have been expressed.

Also, a major holiday is approaching, and many of us are going to be alone or with those that we are with every day. I’m considering having a Zoom gathering on Thursday, so everyone can “be” with someone, even if it’s virtual, and even if it’s for a short time. We can talk about anything except politics or any other controversial subject, because I want it to be an event where all can feel welcome and all can feel comfortable. If this appeals, please let me know, and let me know what time(s) works best for you. 

Stay safe, and always, be kind.

~Bonnie

From the beginning of the pandemic, it took 43 days before NH reached it’s first 1,000 confirmed diagnoses. It took 44 days to go from 10,000 to 18,000.

This screenshot comes from https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w

This report is explained here:
https://www.clickondetroit.com/health/2020/10/20/cdc-from-january-to-october-us-had-299k-more-deaths-than-in-previous-years/

Useful links

Sources used to create these reports:

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